Welcome to the oil and energy issues section, with resources to help you understand better some of the challenges we face due to the finite amount of petroleum resources compared to increasing world demand.
CJ Campbell picked up where M King Hubbert left off; Hubbert predicted US peak oil production. Campbell extended the predictions to the world. This image is taken from a white paper by the investment firm Guinness Atkinson, who predict that the peak world wide oil production will be between 2015 and 2020. Whether then, or just before 2010 as Campbell predicts, the peak is coming soon. Just as demand is growing world-wide.
The subject of peak oil is divided between two camps: The optimists ("Ostrichs") and the pessimists ("Cassandras"). There are reputable people in both groups.
Among the following oil doomsday scenarios, most are of the "Cassandra" variety. So just to satisfy the skeptics, I've added one "Ostrich" too. Dig deep to find out which are which. But remember: Cassandra's fate was that she was correct even though she was never believed. And just because you're a paranoid doesn't mean somebody isn't out to get you. And just because you're a Cassandra doesn't mean you aren't right (Cassandra was).
10 August 2008 update: T. Boone Pickens has a plan, and he's putting his money where his mouth is, and admits that at his age, he doesn't need the money (and will donate profits if any to charities). I recommend this short Pickens video.
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil has made available its first two year proceedings for anyone who wants them (although you must buy the DVD for the Boston 2006 sessions). If you want more information about this, send me a note for details or a free CD.
Scroll down below this table or click here to see other selected quotes and references.
| Great first place to go, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. This PDF file is 12 pages long, has lots of live links to news and other studies. | Association for the study of Peak Oil and Gas (home page) |
| Another Inconvenient Truth. Brief overview of Peak Oil concepts by "Gail the Actuary" on TheOilDrum. | Click here to view the PDF file. |
Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS 2004 Scenario Updated by Colin J. Campbell, 2004-05-15 |
Click to view a pdf web capture of portions of the Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group section of the ASPO web site. Right-click and "save as" to save the PDF file to your local PC. |
| ASPO, Ireland chapter. Lots of good links to relevant news and offer to receive a free newsletter. | Click to view a pdf web capture of portions of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (Ireland Chapter). Right-click and "save as" to save the PDF file to your local PC. |
The Post Carbon Institute, an operating unit of MetaFoundation, a non-profit organization chartered in Eugene, Oregon, United States. |
The Post Carbon Institute is an educational institution and think tank that explores in theory and practice what cultures, civilisation, governance & economies might look like without the use of (non-renewable) hydrocarbons as energy and chemical feedstocks. Click to view a pdf web capture of portions of the Post Carbon Institute web site. Right-click and "save as" to save the PDF file to your local PC. |
Other miscellaneous reference materials courtesy of the Los Angeles chapter of the Post Carbon Institute. |
A great introductory article by Aaron Naparstek:
The Coming Global Energy Crunch.
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| Institute for the Analysis of Global Security. Sign up for a free email newsletter from IAGS.org | The Institute's vision:
If we don't change our course we'll end up where we're headed. Chinese proverb Since September 11, it has become evident that there is a close connection between America's national security problems and global dependence on oil. Gal Luft wrote an Op Ed piece titled "An Energy Pearl Harbor?" in the 5 March issue of the Washington Post. If this is no longer available, contact me. |
| 25 October 2005 DC Workshop. | National Academies Workshop on Trends in Oil Supply and Demand and Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production held at the AAAS Building Auditorium, Washington, D.C. October 20 - 21, 2005. Streaming and MP3 audio free for the listening. |
| Global Public Media site on peak oil. | Global Public Media (GPM) is a site that aims to present public issues without the bias of for-profit media which ultimately must be profitable. In GPM's own words, it "has been formed to help existing public service information organizations, which include broadcasting, print and online media, give a broader, deeper and more interactive public information service." This site does emphasize "post carbon" issues --what we do when we run out of petroleum-based energy. Matthew Simmons, an energy consultant, provides an especially good interview that you can listen to. |
| Bleakest scenario of all. | The end of suburbia, "Oil Depletion and the Collapse of The American Dream" is a film festival favorite and you can rent it from Netflix. Although it is probably over the top in the following decade, who knows in the 2020s. Tipping points do happen. You can get this |
| Looking for the Ostrich? You found him; he's not worried about oil shortages at all. | Contrarian Ostrich View: Don't Worry About Oil (Ken Fisher) Links to free copies of past Ken Fisher Forbes Magazine articles. |
| Great Books to read for more background about the coming oil crisis. | "A Thousand Barrels a Second: The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World" by Peter Tertzakian. Unemotional, just the facts, by a PhD who has worked in the oil industry. "The Coming Economic Collapse : How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel" by Stephen Leeb (who also writes an investing newsletter) and |
I have a huge number of updates for this section but not (as yet) time to add them. They will come.
WSJ 14 March 2006 about building an LNG alternative:
But "build it and they will come" may be an unworkable strategy in the evolving global LNG trade. Industry
consultant James Jensen says that only about 13% of the investment necessary for a full LNG supply chain
to the U.S. involves spending on U.S. shores. Plants to liquefy natural gas in places with big supplies of
stranded gas like Trinidad, Russia or Qatar cost about three times as much as a regasification terminal,
which converts LNG back into gas form, and even the fleet of tankers needed to ensure a steady supply costs
two to three times as much.
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